Indiana

So it looks like it's going to be within 1% in Indiana. Gary is still only reporting 50% of its precincts, and if Obama ends up winning it at the same rate he is winning it now, he will win with about 3,000 votes. Since NC was so decisive for Obama and Indiana was such a squeaker, maybe there will be more superdelegates declaring their support for him in the next few days than I thought before. This could be done very soon.

Lost in the woods

From Random images

In our quest to find the elusive burning bush, Euonymus alatus*, we became turned around a few times. I knew it was rough when we ran into Route 18, a major highway on the opposite side of the forest. To be fair, I think Rebecca and I had an equal share of wrong decisions. I was exhausted when we finally came out, and disappointed that we didn't see the elusive falls, but happy that I only found one tick and that we got our samples.

*corrected from an earlier version, thank you Ralph

One more thought

What does it mean that, despite her tremendous hurdles ahead, Pennsylvanians still voted for Clinton? It reminds me of the fact that over 200,000 Republicans, about a quarter of the voters, voted against McCain, even though he is guaranteed to win. That spells trouble for him in getting Republicans to come out and vote in November, but is the same true for the Democrats and Obama? It would be a true surprise if Clint were the nominee, yet still she wins the big state votes.

Primaries

Do you think the Democratic nomination will be secured tomorrow? If Obama wins Indiana tomorrow by 5 or more points, I think Hillary will bow out within a week. More likely, he will lose Indiana by 5 and win NC by 10, in which case there are two possibilities. Either the superdelegates will all migrate to Obama within a week and Clinton will bow out, or they will be roughly split and the battle will go the convention. My bet: 80% of the remaining superdelegates will go to Obama and there will be serious pressure on Clinton until she gives up in the last week of May.

Update! I just looked up the primary schedule and realized they go on until Montana and South Dakota on June 3rd. New prediction: Obama will be the nominee on June 6th.

Stupid as sin

"A Roman Catholic bishop said Sunday that the church has officially recognized that the Virgin Mary appeared to a 17th-century shepherd girl in the French Alps." Now that it's official, I know that God really was there. When bureaucracy and religion get mixed up, hilarity inevitably ensues. As for the last sentence in the article concerning the healing powers of Lourdre's waters, why does religion get a free pass when it comes to making outrageous, falsifiable claims?