I hope Obama wins. Even a significant foreign policy disaster between now and election day will probably not alter the results after Powell's endorsement, though I may of course be wrong. The latest polls have Obama at just over 50% and McCain around 43%. I predict that slightly more undecided voters will go for McCain in the voting both, but that the final result will be 53:46. As far as toss up states are concerned, I think McCain will carry Florida and North Carolina, and Obama Colorado, Ohio, and Missouri. Unless McCain says "welfare" 500 or more times between now and election day, I think the Bradley effect will be less than 1% and it will show up only in a slight skew towards McCain in the as-of-now undecided voters.
Tuesday, October 21, 2008
I hope
I hope Obama wins. Even a significant foreign policy disaster between now and election day will probably not alter the results after Powell's endorsement, though I may of course be wrong. The latest polls have Obama at just over 50% and McCain around 43%. I predict that slightly more undecided voters will go for McCain in the voting both, but that the final result will be 53:46. As far as toss up states are concerned, I think McCain will carry Florida and North Carolina, and Obama Colorado, Ohio, and Missouri. Unless McCain says "welfare" 500 or more times between now and election day, I think the Bradley effect will be less than 1% and it will show up only in a slight skew towards McCain in the as-of-now undecided voters.
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