Primaries

Do you think the Democratic nomination will be secured tomorrow? If Obama wins Indiana tomorrow by 5 or more points, I think Hillary will bow out within a week. More likely, he will lose Indiana by 5 and win NC by 10, in which case there are two possibilities. Either the superdelegates will all migrate to Obama within a week and Clinton will bow out, or they will be roughly split and the battle will go the convention. My bet: 80% of the remaining superdelegates will go to Obama and there will be serious pressure on Clinton until she gives up in the last week of May.

Update! I just looked up the primary schedule and realized they go on until Montana and South Dakota on June 3rd. New prediction: Obama will be the nominee on June 6th.