Friday, February 8, 2008

What confirms your beliefs?


I can think of no other areas of science where millions of people spend considerable mental energy trying to argue with experts than with global warming or evolution. The scientific method of objectively evaluating evidence has changed our lives in so many ways that go unquestioned every day, but when the same process presents us with evidence that we should release fewer greenhouse gases or that we are just one of millions of species with common ancestry dating back billions of years, suddenly it makes more sense to look for holes.

I am glad that something in this world isn't taken with absolute faith in experts, but why not be more skeptical about quantum theory, internal combustion, television broadcasts, or the ways an ideal gas works? What is it about these two topics that some conservatives think is so dangerous? It seems like a stupid question at first, but really, what in your life would change if you accepted, without reservation, that you belong to one of 13 species of apes? If you accepted, without reservation, that global warming were a real threat, you would support a gradual change to a more carbon-neutral lifestyle that would not change your quality of life at all. In fact, you would probably be healthier.

In order to hold these feelings against evolution and global warming, one has to actively disagree with available evidence. Why do people do this? Why is evidence such a dirty standard? Why, when facing two mutually-exclusive possibilities, would one ever assume that the one not supported by available facts is the correct choice? I think that belief in God is a similar phenomenon. Ultimately, one cannot use evidence alone to believe that God exists, faith is required. When faced with two mutually exclusive possibilities, many people choose the alternative hypothesis over the null.

This may be due to a cognitive system that is advanced enough to look for and require explanations of unknown phenomenon. Ten thousand years ago, when weather patterns were as mysterious as the origins of the universe, people thought that prayer and dances affected the weather. (Correction: humanity has not advanced) Today, there are far fewer mysteries, but the origin of the universe is still unknown. Based on our previous track record of the advancement of knowledge, I do not think that that mystery is unknowable. If the answer is revealed, will anyone listen?

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